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Just two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.